US trucking has never paid more for fuel.
enaide’s measured 15% fleet fuel saving is worth about $14,650 per truck per year at today’s diesel price, for a subscription of about $480.
- The triggerDiesel is up 71% in a year; 2026 is the most expensive diesel year in US history. Even EIA’s 2027 forecast of $4.50 is above 2023–25 levels.
- The people problemFederal enforcement in 2025–26 could remove 200,000–600,000 drivers. Fleets now compete to keep good drivers, and enaide links fuel savings to driver rewards.
- No subsidy dependenceThe US has no white-certificate scheme and cut clean-vehicle credits in 2025. enaide’s case rests on direct savings and certified Scope 3 data.
- The gap in the marketSamsara and Motive dominate compliance and safety. Neither leads on physics-based fuel intelligence; the one specialist reports about 5% savings against enaide’s 15%.
- Autonomy is not a near-term threatFewer than 100 driverless trucks run commercially today; the market stays human-driven for at least a decade.
- The opportunity16.1 million trucks over 3.5 t are a $7.7 billion annual subscription TAM; the 3.5 million tractor-trailers alone are $1.7 billion. A 1% share of tractor-trailers is about $17 million ARR, reached partner-first through existing fleet marketplaces.
The ask: capital and US partnerships to run paid US pilots, publish a US-measured saving and list enaide in the major US fleet marketplaces within 18 months.
Fuel economics and ROI
Diesel averaged $6.352/gal in the week of October 26, 2026. Fuel was 20.6% of truck operating cost in 2025 and is about 31% at today’s price.
Annual on-highway diesel averages from EIA; 2026 year to date; 2027 is the EIA forecast. Hover the points for values.
ROI calculator
Set your own assumptions. Defaults are a 100-truck long-haul fleet at today’s price.
36-month cumulative view
Same assumptions as the calculator above, month by month, with a ramp-up while drivers adopt the coaching. Fleet costs are the one-off hardware plus the monthly subscription; the success fee is settled once a year (months 12, 24 and 36) on that year’s saving above the threshold.
Cost structure from ATRI Operational Costs of Trucking 2026: $2.336/mile all-in, $1.854 non-fuel. Subscription: €35/month at 1 EUR ≈ 1.12 USD. Success fee: a share of the fuel saving above the threshold, so the fleet pays more only when it saves more. 15% is the measured average across enaide customer fleets in Europe. Credit conversions: 10.18 kg CO2 per gallon of diesel (EPA); 1 gallon = 3.785 l at 0.835 kg/l; 1 t diesel ≈ 1.08 toe (Italian TEE convention). Credit prices are illustrative.
US trucking market at a glance
A $936 billion industry on about 3.5 million Class 8 tractors, overwhelmingly made of small fleets and running on thin margins.
| Metric | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industry gross freight revenue | $936.4B (from $906B) | 2025 | ATA Trends 2026 |
| Freight moved by truck | 11.46 billion tons | 2025 | ATA Trends 2026 |
| Professional truck drivers | 3.45 million | 2025 | ATA Trends 2026 |
| Trucking-related jobs | 8.5 million | 2025 | ATA Trends 2026 |
| Class 8 tractors in operation | ~3.5 million | 2026 | US DOT via CNBC |
| Carriers with 10 trucks or fewer | 91.1% | 2025 | ATA Trends 2026 |
| Carriers with fewer than 100 power units | 99.2% | 2025 | ATA Trends 2026 |
| Cost to operate a truck (all-in) | $2.336/mile, record | 2025 | ATRI 2026 |
| Cost excluding fuel | $1.854/mile (+4.2%) | 2025 | ATRI 2026 |
| Truck share of cross-border surface trade | 68% Canada, 86% Mexico | 2025 | ATA Trends 2026 |
Fuel share of operating cost
Two facts shape the go-to-market. The market is fragmented, so the target is fleets of 50–1,000 tractors with a fleet manager and a fuel budget. And margins are thin after three years of freight recession, so products are bought on measurable ROI.
Driver workforce
The US does not lack CDL holders; it lacks qualified drivers who stay. 2025–26 enforcement is now removing supply at scale.
Bars against a base of 3.45 million drivers.
The debate
ATA has published shortage estimates for years. OOIDA and the current DOT Secretary call the shortage a myth and blame high turnover and poor conditions (Land Line). Long-haul turnover runs close to 90%.
What changed in 2026
FMCSA’s final rule on non-domiciled CDLs took effect on March 16, 2026, alongside renewed out-of-service enforcement for English proficiency (TT News). About 9,500 drivers had been put out of service for English by December 2025. Driver pay is rising again (ATA compensation study).
Why it matters for enaide
Fleets now compete to keep good drivers. enaide’s co-pilot, fair scoring and built-in rewards (digital coins and tiered health cover) turn fuel savings into driver pay-outs. That targets retention directly, not only the fuel bill.
Autonomous trucks
Real, but a rounding error until the 2030s: fewer than 100 driverless Class 8 trucks run commercially, against about 3.5 million tractors.
| Company | Driverless trucks | Stated target | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora Innovation | ~20 in operation (Sept 2026); 500,000+ driverless miles | 200 by end 2026; 30,000+ by 2030; trucks for sale from 2027 | CNBC, DC Velocity |
| Kodiak AI (KDK) | 35 customer-owned (end Q2 2026), mostly off-highway in the Permian Basin | Driverless long-haul by end 2026 | Kodiak Q2 2026 |
| Volvo Autonomous Solutions (Aurora Driver) | Pilot builds | Driverless from Q1 2027; 300+ by end 2027 | Aurora Q2 2026 letter |
For the next decade the addressable market is human-driven trucks. Hybrid fleets will mix driven and driverless trucks on the same lanes, and enaide’s optimal speed profile and energy model stay useful when the driver becomes software. Autonomy players are looking for fleet-management layers around their trucks: a partnership angle, not a threat.
US Class 8 truck OEMs
Four groups build almost every US heavy truck. US Class 8 retail sales were about 208,000 units in 2025, down 13% in a freight recession.
Solid bars: reported 2025 shares. Hatched bars: estimated ranges, drawn at the midpoint.
Data access
- Every US Class 8 truck speaks SAE J1939, the protocol enaide already reads in Europe; access is through the 9-pin Deutsch diagnostic port.
- Since the December 2019 ELD mandate the port usually hosts a logging device, so enaide installs with a Y-cable or reads data through the fleet’s existing telematics platform.
- OEM platforms (Detroit Connect, PACCAR Connect, International 360, Volvo/Mack remote diagnostics) focus on uptime, not driver eco-coaching.
- The Android Automotive roadmap, starting with the IVECO proof of concept, is the long-term path to native in-cab integration.
Incentives and regulation
There is no federal equivalent of Italy’s white certificates, and clean-vehicle credits were cut in 2025. The US case rests on direct savings and shippers’ emissions reporting.
| Instrument | Status (Oct 2026) | Relevance to enaide |
|---|---|---|
| Tradable efficiency certificates (TEE equivalent) | None federally State standards bind utilities, not fleets | None today |
| Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit (45W, up to $40,000) | Ended Vehicles acquired after Sept 30, 2025 | None |
| Refueling property credit (30C) | Ended Placed in service after June 30, 2026 | None |
| Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA) | At risk ~$90M in FY2026; EPA proposes elimination; House voted to reauthorize | Low Funds engines and vehicles |
| EPA SmartWay | Active Voluntary, widely required by shippers | High enaide data improves carrier standing |
| State programs (e.g. California HVIP) | Active Mostly zero-emission vehicles | Low |
| Low Carbon Fuel Standards (CA, OR, WA) | Active Credits to fuel suppliers | Indirect |
Not tax or legal advice.
Where value can still be monetized
- Shipper Scope 3 reporting. MinervaS is ISO 14083 certified with a Smart Freight Centre certificate, so enaide data can feed shippers’ GLEC/ISO 14083 reports directly.
- Voluntary carbon market. Verified fuel savings could generate voluntary credits, the closest US analogue to TEE; the Italian methodology is the starting point.
- Tax treatment. SaaS is an operating expense for fleets; hardware may qualify for accelerated depreciation, to confirm with a US adviser.
Competitive landscape
The market consolidates around Samsara and Motive, built on compliance, safety video and tracking. Fuel optimization is a feature there, not the focus.
| Company | Scale | Core offer | Fuel capability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsara (NYSE: IOT) | ARR $2.12B, +30% | ELD, AI dashcams, tracking, maintenance | Reports, driver scores, partner apps |
| Motive (IPO filed, J.P. Morgan lead bookrunner) | ARR ~$501M, +27% | ELD, AI dashcam, fleet card, spend | Fuel reporting, idle alerts |
| Geotab | Private, large installed base | Open device plus app marketplace | Via apps; enaide integration in progress |
| Platform Science | Private; took over Trimble telematics | In-cab Android platform | Via partner apps |
| Vnomics True Fuel | Specialist | Audible in-cab fuel coaching | Direct competitor; ~5% MPG case |
| Verizon Connect, Omnitracs, Lytx, Netradyne | Large, varied | Tracking, ELD, video safety | Basic reporting or none |
| Fleetio (adjacent platform) | Private; $450M+ Series D (Mar 2025), valued over $1.5B | Maintenance management: work orders, inspections, parts, repair network | Fuel cost logs only; a likely integration partner |
Capability matrix
| Capability | enaide | Samsara | Motive | Vnomics | Geotab | Fleetio |
|---|
Competitor capabilities from public product information and press as of October 2026; re-check before external distribution.
Positioning. enaide is not a Samsara replacement. It is the fuel-and-driver intelligence layer a Samsara, Motive or Geotab fleet adds on top, and it beats the one direct specialist on predictive guidance, physics models, rewards and certified emissions data.
Why enaide wins
A 15% average fuel saving for about $40 per truck per month, from patented physics-based models the US platforms do not have.
University of Salerno spin-off founded in 2020; funded by bootstrapping, Invitalia, EU programs and EIT Urban Mobility, with a seed round via CDP Venture Capital’s AI fund.
Market sizing and go-to-market
At about $480 per truck per year, the subscription TAM is about $7.7 billion a year across 16.1 million trucks over 3.5 t, and $1.7 billion on the 3.5 million tractor-trailers, against a fuel-savings pool of about $36 billion on tractor-trailers alone.
Base: ~3.5 million Class 8 tractors. Hardware revenue and Class 6–7 trucks excluded.
Fuel saved assumes 15% at the EIA 2027 forecast of $4.50, 100,000 miles and 6.5 mpg.
TAM, SAM and SOM in trucks
How many trucks enaide can address, how many it can serve with today’s product and channels, and how many it can realistically win in five years.
| Level | Trucks | Subscription value per year | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | All trucks over 3.5 t: 12.6 million single-unit trucks and 3.48 million combination trucks registered (FHWA, 2024); 1.1 million buses not included | ||
| SAM | Combination trucks (tractor-trailers), the long-haul and regional segment: about 62,000 miles a year each, five times a single-unit truck (FHWA) | ||
| SOM | Five-year target: share of SAM won through US pilots, marketplaces and channels (adjustable) |
FHWA counts as trucks all vehicles with six or more tyres or a gross weight above 10,000 lb (4.5 t), the closest US equivalent of the 3.5 t threshold used in Europe. TAM counts every truck enaide can equip; single-unit trucks drive far fewer miles, so their value per truck is lower. About 65% of US trucks run in fleets of more than 20 trucks (FMCSA carrier census distribution), the first target inside the SAM. Subscription value at $480 per truck per year.
Go-to-market sequence
- Proof in the US (0–6 months). Live demo on a US truck, then paid pilots with two or three mid-size long-haul fleets in high-diesel regions; publish a US-measured saving.
- Marketplaces (6–18 months). Geotab US marketplace first, then Samsara and Platform Science app ecosystems.
- Channels (12–24 months). US distributors, fleet-card providers and truck insurers, replicating the Würth and Vodafone models.
- OEM integration (24+ months). Extend the Android Automotive path to US OEMs for line-fit or dealer-fit.
Risks and mitigations
The main risks are lower diesel prices, incumbents bundling fuel features and the cost of proving results in a new market.
| Risk | Why it matters | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Diesel falls back to $3.50–4.50 | Weaker urgency | ROI stays above 10× at the 2025 average; retention and emissions value are price-independent |
| Samsara or Motive build deep fuel coaching | They own the customer | Partner-first inside their marketplaces; patented physics models; platforms already partner with specialists |
| No US track record | US fleets buy on local proof | Paid pilots with published results; reuse of the Italian TEE measurement methodology |
| J1939 port occupied by the ELD | Installation friction | Y-cable or data via existing telematics; Software-Defined Vehicle roadmap removes the dongle |
| Different US engines and trucks | Model accuracy at launch | Calibrate on Detroit, Cummins and PACCAR engines during pilots |
| Regulation and data (AI Act, privacy, driver monitoring) | Compliance cost | ISO 27001 in place; AI Act work under way; transparent driver-facing scoring |
| Fragmented market | Costly long tail | Focus on 50–1,000-tractor fleets; small fleets via channels only |
| EUR/USD swings | Pricing and margin | USD pricing for US contracts; US cost base as the business scales |
Sources and notes
Market data as of October 31, 2026, listed by section. enaide figures (15% saving, about 1,000 vehicles, €35/month, certifications, partnerships, TCO comparison) are MinervaS internal data. Currency at 1 EUR ≈ 1.12 USD.
- US market and operating costs: ATA American Trucking Trends 2026 (TheTrucker); ATRI, Operational Costs of Trucking 2026; CNBC, Sept 2026 (US DOT Class 8 estimate)
- Diesel prices: EIA weekly via Logistics Management, Oct 2026; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct 2026; FRED, EIA annual diesel series; Macrotrends, EIA history; IndexBox, EIA weekly update; OilPriceAPI, EIA regional prices
- Drivers: AJOT; Trucking Dive; FreightWaves; TT News, DOT enforcement; Land Line, ATA shortage debate; Land Line, trucking jobs; Fleet Equipment, ATA driver pay; Yahoo News, driver turnover
- Autonomous trucks: Aurora Q2 2026 shareholder letter (SEC); Kodiak AI Q2 2026 results (SEC); CNBC, Sept 2026; DC Velocity; TT News, Aurora second-generation truck; Breakbulk News
- OEMs: TT News / Omdia, Class 8 sales Dec 2025; TheTrucker, 2025 Class 8 sales by brand; PACCAR 2025 annual report (SEC); OTrucking OEM overview
- Incentives and regulation: AFDC, federal laws and incentives; FleetRabbit incentives guide, Oct 2026; The Truckers Report, DERA; CCJ, DERA reauthorization; ACEEE
- Competitors: Samsara Q2 FY2027 results (SEC); Renaissance Capital, Motive IPO filing; CurvedTrading, Motive S-1 summary; Equipment Finance News, Motive IPO underwriters; Work Truck, Vnomics and Platform Science; CCJ, Vnomics at Crum Trucking; FleetOwner, Vnomics; Techleap, Fleetio Series D; Fleetio, H1 2026 press release
- Market sizing (TAM, SAM, SOM): FHWA Highway Statistics 2024, Table VM-1 (trucks registered); US DOE, average annual miles by truck type; National Academies / FMCSA, trucks by fleet size; CNBC, US DOT Class 8 estimate; SOM shares are MinervaS planning assumptions
- Calculator conversions: 10.18 kg CO2 per gallon of diesel (US EPA); 1 gallon = 3.785 l at 0.835 kg/l; 1 t diesel ≈ 1.08 toe (Italian TEE convention)
- enaide: MinervaS internal data